Free NFL Picks - Week 10  

Lucky went 7-7 last week with his picks in as chaotic an NFL season as I have ever seen. My record for the year so far is 62-60-5. This week is winning time and I plan on putting up big numbers to set the proper trend for the second half of the season.

Lucky Lester's Picks For Week Ten

Baltimore(-1.5) @ Jets - The Ravens have looked solid in recent losses and wins. Jamal Lewis is back, showing his importance last week by scoring a decisive touchdown in the 4th. Chad Pennington is out for at least one week. That doesn't make life easier against the toughest defense in the land. Quincy Carter, not known for his accuracy, will find quite the challenge ahead of him this week against Baltimore. The Jets will rely heavily on Curtis Martin. The Ravens will force Quincy Carter to win the game for the Jets. As much as I love to see Ex-Cowboys succeed, I don't see it happening for Quincy in week 10. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Detroit(+3) @ Jacksonville - Byron Leftwhich is out with an injury. He leaves his Jaguar team in the hands of David Gerrard. Truly, the games outcome lies at the feet of Fred Taylor. Detroit will keep all of their attention on Fred. Gerrard isn't the passing threat Byron is by any means. Joey Harrington will do his best to find Roy Williams against the average secondary in Jacksonville. The Jaguar D-Line will shutdown the Lion's pathetic rushing attack, but will struggle against Harrington. For the first time since week three last year, Byron Leftwhich will sit. This doesn't bode well for a Jaguar team that finds themselves smack dab in the middle of a tough playoff race. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Kansas City (-5) @ New Orleans - I'll take the Chiefs regardless of the spread, with or without their holy man. Priest is doubtful, so let's assume he doesn't play. The Saints continue to be a disappointment, no matter who plays for them. They have a stud running back in Deuce McAllister, but he has only stumbled to 100 yards in one game this year. (102 yards vs Bucs week 5) He is only averaging a Ron Daynish 3.5 yards per carry, with a long run of, brace yourself… 16 yards! Aaron Brooks continues to hold the ball too long and continually make poor decisions. Donte Stallworth hasn't shown near the promise of his rookie campaign, and the defense is still horrible. Kansas City may be without the leagues most feared offensive player, but Derrick Blaylock has shown he can get the job done (see Atlanta game log two weeks ago). Not t hat it matters. The Saints couldn't stop Drew Bledsoe in an old school Nebraskan option attack. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Seattle (even) @ St. Louis - Seattle is the better team. They will come to play in Saint Louis, which will hopefully be a good sign for Seahawk fans. The Rams are much better at home, but will stumble this week against Seattle. The Rams are in the perfect image of Dr. Jekyl and Miss Hyde. One week they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week they get kicked around by the powerful Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins! They are never exciting to bet for, often leaving you wondering what the hell happened. Take Seattle here, Shaun Alexander will continue his superb season, rushing all over an average St. Louis Defense. Hasselbeck will step up as well.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Cincinnati(+3) @ Washington - Portis should shellac the Bengals rush defense, but Brunell and the Skin's horrendous passing game will end Washington's chances in a hurry. Since Gibbs came in, the Redskins have been overrated every week. Each time I see the Redskins spread, I am stunned. Maybe, I miss all the good things the Redskins do, but they seem just as bad as their record, if not worse. The Bengals have looked better of late, feeding the ball to Rudi Johnson and letting Carson Palmer catch defenses of guard with the long ball. If they do that against the Skins, they will win outright. Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET

Minnesota @ Green Bay(-4) - Green Bay always has a hell of a time stopping Randy Moss. Ask any Packer Die Hard, and they will tell you how much they hate number 84. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Randy has been ruled out for this Sunday's game. Brett Favre should feast on the Mossless Vikings by leading his Packers to an old fashioned dominate performance in Lambeu. Daunte Culpepper has had a tough time without his partner in crime. Expect more of the same against an average but maturing Packer secondary. Ahman Green will get the ball plenty, which is a good sign for Packer fans, and me. I'm taking Green Bay. Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET

Buffalo(+8)@ New England - 8 points is to many for a game that will match two of the top defenses in the league. The Patriots get more credit, because their team is flat out better. But don't ignore Buffalo. Their young D has been up to the challenge this year, doing their best to make up for their poor offense. New England should win this game, but Buffalo will make it close. It doesn't hurt that the Patriots often seem to play to the level of their opponents. Buffalo running back Willis McGahee has rushed for at least a C-note in every game he has started.
Game Date: 11/14/04 20:35 ET

Chicago @ Tennessee(even) - Yikes. I've got to take, Chica... nope can't do it! Krenzel can't win three straight, it's just not possible. But can I take the Titans lead by William Volek? Okay, I guess I have to make sacrifices. I don't want to even hear about this game come Sunday. But if I have to pick, I'll take Chris Brown's team. Brown has rushed for over 100 yards in 5 games this year. (145+ in 3) Brown is averaging an eyelash below 5 yards a carry, doing his best work against poor run defenses... like The Bears. I can only hope this game marks the return of Steve McNair, but it's not looking so good. Take the Titans at home in a game you pray is not carried in your area! Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Houston(+9) @ Indianapolis - Two good offenses, one bad defense. Indianapolis will have a grand spread to dig out of. Although Houston looked pretty bad against the real Denver Broncos last week, I think they have a good chance to win against the Colts. Indianapolis hasn't played like a 9-point favorite in the last 5 weeks. Last week, Peyton threw 5 touchdowns, Edgerrin James rushed for over 120 yards, and The Colts still barely snuck by a struggling Vikings squad. David Carr will find holes the size of Texas against a terrible Colt Defense. Carr also has the option to just hand the ball to his running back Davis. Either way, the Texans have a decent defense to match their good offense, making them my upset pick of the week.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Pittsburgh(-3.5) @ Cleveland - Wouldn't it be too perfect if the Steelers, after ruining two perfect seasons, lost to the Browns? It could happen. But I won't pick it. Steeler D is too good to bet against, and the Browns? They are up and down with the best of them. When it comes down to it, I just think the Steelers are flat out better than either the Patriots or the Eagles. Everyone can say what they want about flukes, and David vs. Goliath and all that business. But Pitt has a very good defense and a rushing attack that is second to none. I'll take Big Ben to continue his phenomenal rookie season, leading his team, and beating the Browns in Cleveland.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5) - Atlanta should have no problem. The Bucs won't be able to run this week against the stout run defense in Atlanta. They won't be able to throw either. In fact, they won't be able to do any of the things they did against the Chiefs D last week. Mike Vick, who looked real good a week ago, looks to continue his growth in the West Coast Offense. With two weeks to prepare, the Falcons are my hands down favorite against the Bucs.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Carolina(even) @ San Francisco - Carolina. They're bound to win one sooner or later, so why not against the Niners, who should not win one ever again. Kevan Barlow could be the biggest disappointment this year for fantasy buffs. I don't blame him; he's got defenses breathing down his throat every snap. With Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey running the show, he's been hard pressed to find any room to roam. Carolina is bad, but they still have guys who remember how to win, giving them a big advantage in San Francisco. Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET

NY Giants(-2) @ Arizona - The Giants should snap out of their slump a week after a loss to Chicago. Arizona hasn't been horrible, but the Giants have a solid playoff chance, something the Cardinals threw out the window when Anquan Boldin went down in the preseason. Tiki Barbar has been amazing, holding on to the ball, and sprinting to daylight at every opportunity. He should continue his great season with a couple touchdowns in Arizona. (I'm secretly wishing for Emmitt Smith to rush for 300 yards in this one. Couldn't Dallas use him right now! Ha Ha)
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET

Philadelphia(-6.5) @ Dallas - The Eagles should trounce a Dallas team that is finally playing down to it's talent level. (3-5) The Eagles looked like a skeleton of their dominating selves last week against The Steelers. They will get back to their roots against a rueful Dallas Defense, and a generous Offense. On Monday Night Football, I can see a vision... Dallas looks terrible again; I have a smile that stretches as far as that stupid gap in The Cowboy's roof. Bill Parcels is caught crying on the sidelines... with Jerry Jones giving him a hug... But in the end, the Cowboys draft pick just gets better and better. Hopefully they pick a lemon or two.
Game Date: 11/15/04 21:05 ET

WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester